Wall Street catastrophe expert Bill Noble
“It’s 10% up or 10% down each day. I don’t have to wait five years in between crises. As a matter of fact, I only have to wait about 45 minutes.”
In another reality, Bill Noble would be just another guy in a suit behind a big desk at the Fed or the SEC, probably murmuring negative incantations like crypto is bad.
Hes certainly got the track record for it: JP Morgan, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. But thats Noble in an evil mirror dimension. In our world, he is a true crypto guy, talking to me in a t-shirt with bicycles in the back of the room. He turned from the Dark Side and joined the rebels.
He is known for his popular YouTube podcasts and TV appearances. Currently, he is a senior market analyst at Token Metrics.
Wall Street career
While studying economics (19871991) at Rutgers University in New Jersey, he managed to wangle one of only two sought-after internships at the time at JP Morgans forex desk on Wall Street. Noble started off when trading technology was primitive and lots of analysis was done by hand on paper. In August 1990, he was put in charge of the desk, while everyone went on holiday, Cos nothing happens in August, let the kid fill in. Then Iraq invaded Kuwait, and all sorts of craziness broke out in the markets.
The price volatility seemed so extreme to me. I had no idea how anyone kept track of this. So, I went to the technical analyst who was attached to the currency unit. I said, I bet everybody comes to you looking for help trying to figure this out.
He goes, Actually, no one does. So, he gave me John Murphys chart book [Charting Made Easy] and took me out for sushi. And I was off to the races from there using charts.
During his years of progression through the conventional Wall Street milieu, he became an expert technical analyst, which he combined with writing reports on different markets. During crashes and Black Swan events like the 1998 implosion of Long Term Capital Management, which nearly cratered the western financial world Noble was the go-to guy. Im like a firefighter: When everybodys running out of the burning building, Im running in, he jokes.
From stocks and bonds to crypto analysis
In 2017, he became intrigued by crypto. He went to an Austin, Texas Bitcoin conference and started doing charts for Ether by hand, which eventually became a gigantic scroll as the price went up and down. Then he met Bitcoin early adopter Charlie Schrem walking through an airport (who has had a crypto career with spectacular ups and downs, even doing jail time connected to the Silk Road marketplace implosion). They got together in crypto.IQ, a consultancy service aiming to improve cryptocurrency analysis with stocks, bonds, interest rates and other mainstream data, which no one else was doing at the time.
In September 2019, Noble joined Token Metrics as a senior market analyst. Led by CEO Ian Balina, the subscription service provides retail traders with AI-driven insights, combined with the work of analysts researching the volatile cryptocurrency markets to assist in making beneficial trades, whatever the overall conditions.
He explains it puts an artificial intelligence system together with my charting. You effectively have a quantitative research product, an institutional quantitative research product that we can deliver to retail, which, you know, is not, is not really around. I mean, there are data and service providers, but, you know, we can provide you with tools you can use yourself. Plus, we have top analysts that look at everything from charts macro to NFTs.
As I recall, Sterling crashing is usually the start of contagion. $GBP has always been a canary in the coal mine. #DXY
— Bill Noble (@crypto_noble) September 26, 2022
Noble has 17,600 Twitter followers, a popular YouTube channel and is a sought-after guest analyst on crypto TV, with his Tony Soprano-esque, no-nonsense New Jersey accent.
He thrives on cryptos volatility, Its 10% up or 10% down each day, he says. I dont have to wait five years in between crises. As a matter of fact, I only have to wait about 45 minutes.
Noble stresses that you need to be very flexible in crypto technical analysis and not tied to one methodology. Surprisingly, he looks to the distant past for his basic systems, Gann works very well [William Gann, an influential early charting pioneer]. I find that the systems Wyckoff is another anything that worked in the early 20th century when stocks were the wild west, and there were 50 publicly traded car companies [work well]. I find Fibonacci is also helpful; Tom DeMarks work is excellent.
The current state of the market
Taking something of a contrarian position, he sees the current crypto winter as having a long-term benefit: clearing out the market and liquidating terrible projects.
The previous run-up was driven by a massive liquidity push by central banks. Then when central banks had to pull the liquidity, you had the 2008 crash of crypto. Speculative assets that never should have gone up, to begin with, went back to zero.
Noble forecasts that for the crypto economy, we can see the beginning of spring, a resumption of growth, after the crash, much like the many crises he weathered in the conventional financial markets, such as 2008 or 1987. He points out that various gurus like Warren Buffett wrote off the internet and Amazon after the 2002 crash. Buffett told CNBC in 2019 that hed been an idiot for not buying shares in Amazon in the past.
Bear markets are good times to do your homework because Mr. Market is now sorting out whos gonna win and whos gonna lose. He is bullish on Ethereum as a Web3 backbone. Web3 is the next internet, connected by Ethereum and Polkadot.
Noble is also bullish on privacy coins and approving quotes from United States National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden: One day, your wealth could be held against you. The central banks push toward centralized digital currencies, which will mean that all transactions will be watched by Big Brother, will create momentum for privacy coins like Zcash. Privacy coins are going to go from being for pirates to being for regular people.
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Psychology of trading
Psychology plays a big part in trading. Noble explains that many of the best traders use physical exercise early in the morning to prepare themselves for the stresses of trading.
Its really about emotional management, he says. They also set up a research framework and stick to it. You have to have a method or a style, and you have to study to get there.
He explains that the legendary trader Bill Williams (who invented numerous indicators, including Awesome Oscillator, the Alligator Indicator and the Market Facilitation Index) made his students do three pages of stream of consciousness writing before he would let them trade, to empty their heads of emotional and intellectual blocks to trading. Noble encourages people to read Williams book, Trading Chaos.
Noble recommends that more emotional investors should adopt a long-term approach rather than the intense ups and downs of day trading. Hold a portfolio for a significant time and only make a few trades per month or year. With yield farming, you would still be getting a return on your investment.
And of course, if you can hold on, then Noble says that long term, the future is bright.
During a tightening cycle, crypto is going to get hurt, like anything else, but as the tightening cycle comes to a close, crypto is the future of money.
It’s 10% up or 10% down every day. I don’t have to wait 5 years in between crises. As a matter of fact, I must wait approximately forty-five minutes. ” In some other realities, Bill Noble could be simply some other man in a suit at the back of a huge table at the Fed or the SEC, possibly murmuring bad incantations like “crypto is bad. Hes truly was given the music document for it: JP Morgan, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. But that’s noble in an evil replicate dimension. In our world, he’s a real crypto man, speaking to me in a t-blouse with bicycles in the lower back of the room. He became a follower of the Dark Side and joined the rebels. He is known for his famous YouTube podcasts and TV appearances. Currently, he’s a senior marketplace analyst at Token Metrics. A Wall Street career While analyzing economics (1987–1991) at Rutgers University in New Jersey, he managed to wangle one of the most sought-after internships of the time at JP Morgans’ foreign exchange table on Wall Street. Noble commenced off while the buying and selling era became primitive and plenty of evaluations were completed by hand on paper. In August 1990, he became the rate of the table, even as all of us went on holiday. Because nothing takes place in August, let the child fill in. Then Iraq invaded Kuwait, and all kinds of craziness broke out inside the markets.
The charge for volatility seems so excessive to me. I had no concept of how all of us stored the tune of this. So, I went to the technical analyst who turned out to be connected to the forex unit. I said, I wager all people involved in you seeking out assistance in seeking to parent this out. He goes, “Actually, no one does. So, he gave me John Murphy’s chart book [Charting Made Easy] and took me out for sushi. And I stopped using charts at the races after that. During his years of development via the traditional Wall Street milieu, he became a professional technical analyst, which he blended with writing reviews on distinctive markets. Noble became the go-to guy during crashes and black swan events such as the 1998 implosion of Long Term Capital Management, which nearly cratered the Western economic global. He jokes: “I’m like a firefighter: when everybody’s walking out of the burning building, I’m walking in.”
stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrency analysis
In 2017, he became intrigued by cryptography. He went to an Austin, Texas Bitcoin convention and began doing charts for Ether by hand, which eventually became an enormous scroll because the fee went up and down. Then he met Bitcoin early adopter Charlie Schrem strolling through an airport (who has had a crypto career with staggering ups and downs, even doing prison time related to the Silk Road market implosion). They were given collectively in crypto. IQ, a consultancy provider aiming to enhance cryptocurrency evaluation with stocks, bonds, hobby prices and other mainstream data, which nobody else was doing at the time.
In September 2019, Noble joined Token Metrics as a senior marketplace analyst. Led by CEO Ian Balina, the subscription provider affords retail buyers with AI-pushed insights, mixed with the work of analysts learning the risky cryptocurrency markets, to help in making useful trades, whatever the general conditions.
He explains that it places a synthetic intelligence device collectively with my charting. You correctly have a quantitative studies product, an institutional quantitative studies product that we will supply to retail, which, you know, isn’t always, isn’t always around. I mean, there are information and provider providers, but, you know, we will offer you equipment you can use yourself. Plus, we’ve got pinnacle analysts that take a look at the whole lot, from charts to macro to NFTs.
As I recall, sterling crashing is typically the beginning of contagion. GBP has usually been a canary inside the coal mine. #DXY
September 26, 2022 — Bill Noble (@crypto_noble)
Noble has seventeen thousand Twitter followers, a famous YouTube channel, and is a sought-after guest analyst on Crypto TV, along with his Tony Soprano-esque, no-nonsense New Jersey accent.
He flourishes on crypto volatility. It’s 10% up or 10% down every day, he says. I don’t wait 5 years in between crises. As a matter of fact, I think I should wait approximately forty-five minutes.
Noble stresses that you want to be very bendy in crypto technical evaluation and are now no longer tied to one methodology. Surprisingly, he seems to be beyond reproach for his simple structures. Gann works very well [William Gann, an influential early charting pioneer]. I believe the Wyckoff structures are something else that worked in the early twentieth century; shares were the wild west, and there were 50 publicly traded vehicle companies [work well]. I locate Fibonacci is likewise helpful; Tom DeMarks’ paintings are excellent.
The state of the market right now
Taking something of a contrarian position, he sees the contemporary crypto iciness as having a long-time period benefit: clearing out the marketplace and liquidating horrible projects.
The preceding run-up was pushed by a huge liquidity push through principal banks. Then, while principal banks had to drudge the liquidity, you had the 2008 crash of crypto. Speculative assets that in no way needed to have gone up, to start with, went back to zero.
Noble forecasts that for the crypto economy, we are able to see the start of spring, a resumption of growth, after the crash, just like the various crises he weathered inside the traditional economic markets, consisting of 2008 or 1987. He points out that numerous specialists, like Warren Buffett, wrote off the net and Amazon after the 2002 crash. Buffett told CNBC in 2019 that he’d been a fool for not investing in Amazon earlier.
Bear markets are desirable instances to do your homework due to the fact that Mr. Market is now finding out who is going to win and who is going to lose. He is bullish on Ethereum as a Web3 backbone. Web3 is the subsequent internet, related through Ethereum and Polkadot.
Noble is also bullish on private money, approving charges from US National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden: “One day, your wealth may be used against you.” The significant banks’ push closer to centralized virtual currencies, a good way to imply that each transaction might be watched by Big Brother, will create momentum for private cash like Zcash. Privacy cash is going to move from being for pirates to being for ordinary people.